If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. And there is some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. Lake Powell is in crisis. Getty Images. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. Share on Facebook; . 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The year as I write is now 2018. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. Okay. Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. What does the forecast look like? The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. I said at the top that we dont have an official water shortage. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Levels on Lake Powell, which stores water for the. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. The water level decline . And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. Water management requires planning for the future. The two. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. I'm not sure a lot of Las Vega. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. The . The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. And this is just the beginning of what. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. Lake Powell is in crisis. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. Things will have to change in how we do business.. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. After seeing 30 inches of rain in one day in Louisiana, 20 inches in Houston, unprecedented drought in California over the last 5 years, not to mention the flow reductions in Colorado River, Udall said, I think we need to seriously consider water-related climatic events that have no historical precedent.. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. Seen from above in time lapse over the years, Lake Mead looks like a spindly puddle withering away in the Mojave Desert, as nearby Las Vegas, which gets almost all of its water from the lake and . Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. We are still facing a nearly 1 in 4 chance of Lake Powell returning to "minimum power pool" by 2024 - a risk that remains steady through 2026, the latest year for which Reclamation has forecast. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. Thousands of Tucson homes use 250% more water than you. Now what? The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. All rights reserved. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. You cant do that with groundwater. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. He has mostly covered environmental stories since 2005, focusing on water supplies, climate change, the Rosemont Mine and the endangered jaguar. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. What are the effects of climate change? 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